Theories of referendum and the analysis of agenda-setting.

The referendum is often considered to be a form of direct democracy, and is often justified in terms of results representing the will of the majority. This view is disputable for three reasons: i) based on the results of social choice theory, it may be argued that the outcomes of referendums may be arbitrary and open to various interpretations; ii) it is debatable what the role of popular majorities should be in decision-making; many theorists of democracy think that unchecked majority rule should not prevail; iii) because of the differences in agenda-setting, there is considerable functional variation between referendums. Different forms of referendums have also been justified by different theoretical arguments: popular initiatives have been promoted by radical democrats, whereas referendums used as a check on legislature have been supported by 'Madisonian' democrats. In the analysis of agenda-setting it is important to distinguish i) how and by whom the referendum is initiated and ii) on what kind of issues they may be held. The influence of the referendum on the political agenda depends on whether the referendum is initiated by representatives (ad hoc or optional referendum); or by a certain number of citizens (popular initiative); or whether it is a check on laws passed by the parliament (mandatory, suspensive and abrogative referendums). Furthermore, these distinctions are important for understanding the strategic character of referendums, i.e. the strategic use of optional referendums by the representatives (parliamentary parties, president etc.), or the representatives' anticipation and reaction to the possibility of the other forms of referendums. Referendum in 22 democracies are classified, and their 'functional properties' (Smith 1976) are analysed. In order to get a more precise picture on how referendums function as a part of political systems and how political actors use the referendum, three cases, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland, are analysed. Although the idea of giving the people a say is the common element of all forms of referendums, the differences between agenda-setting institutions explain why, how and under whose control 'the people's voice' is heard

For the Sake of the Future : Can Democratic Deliberation Help Thinking and Caring about Future Generations?

This article examines whether democratic deliberation can enhance participants' capacity to consider future generations' perspectives and willingness to make sacrifices to ensure their well-being. In addition to normal deliberation, we are interested in the effects of a mental time travel exercise where deliberators imagine themselves in the future (without ageing). The study is based on an experiment conducted as a part of Citizens' Assembly that contributed to the long-term planning of the Satakunta region in Finland. Our findings suggest that deliberation as such increases participants' willingness to consider future generations' perspectives in long-term planning; yet the mental time travel exercise had only a modest impact on perspective-taking. The results also show some support for the assumption that deliberation can enhance willingness to make sacrifices for future generations, although we do not see such an impact in case of an intergenerational conflict in flood protection.Peer reviewe

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful

Genetic basis and outcome in a nationwide study of Finnish patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Aims Nationwide large-scale genetic and outcome studies in cohorts with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) have not been previously published. Methods and results We sequenced 59 cardiomyopathy-associated genes in 382 unrelated Finnish patients with HCM and found 24 pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutations in six genes in 38.2% of patients. Most mutations were located in sarcomere genes (MYBPC3, MYH7, TPM1, and MYL2). Previously reported mutations by our study group (MYBPC3-Gln1061Ter, MYH7-Arg1053Gln, and TPM1-Asp175Asn) and a fourth major mutation MYH7-Val606Met accounted for 28.0% of cases. Mutations in GLA and PRKAG2 were found in three patients. Furthermore, we found 49 variants of unknown significance in 31 genes in 20.4% of cases. During a 6.7 +/- 4.2 year follow-up, annual all-cause mortality in 482 index patients and their relatives with HCM was higher than that in the matched Finnish population (1.70 vs. 0.87%; P <0.001). Sudden cardiac deaths were rare (n = 8). Systolic heart failure (hazard ratio 17.256, 95% confidence interval 3.266-91.170, P = 0.001) and maximal left ventricular wall thickness (hazard ratio 1.223, 95% confidence interval 1.098-1.363, P <0.001) were independent predictors of HCM-related mortality and life-threatening cardiac events. The patients with a pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutation underwent an implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation more often than patients without a pathogenic or likely pathogenic mutation (12.9 vs. 3.5%, P <0.001), but there was no difference in all-cause or HCM-related mortality between the two groups. Mortality due to HCM during 10 year follow-up among the 5.2 million population of Finland was studied from death certificates of the National Registry, showing 269 HCM-related deaths, of which 32% were sudden. Conclusions We identified pathogenic and likely pathogenic mutations in 38% of Finnish patients with HCM. Four major sarcomere mutations accounted for 28% of HCM cases, whereas HCM-related mutations in non-sarcomeric genes were rare. Mortality in patients with HCM exceeded that of the general population. Finally, among 5.2 million Finns, there were at least 27 HCM-related deaths annually.Peer reviewe